Rate Forecasting: Will Mortgage Rates Drop in 2024?

February 22, 2024

Home loans in 2023 were out of reach for many, no thanks to high mortgage rates. The burning question on everyone's mind is whether these rates will finally go down in 2024. For individuals eagerly searching for a new home, a glimmer of hope is on the horizon. Mortgage rate forecasting indicates a potential decrease in rates for the coming year. While nothing is certain, experts suggest that economic conditions may lead to a more favorable mortgage rate environment. We will explore the factors influencing mortgage rate forecasts and provide insights into what potential homebuyers should consider in their decision-making process.

What is the Predicted Mortgage Rate in 2024?

Two small houses are sitting on top of a calculator for rates.

Many wonder when mortgage rates will go down. The experts at the Wall Street Journal anticipate a slow but steady drop in mortgage rates over the next year, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hints at reducing rates throughout their meetings this year. Projections indicate that by the end of 2024, the anticipated 30-year mortgage rates will be as follows:

Mortgage Banker Association - 6.1%
Fannie Mae - 6.5%
Realtor.com - 6.5%
Redfin - 6.6%
National Association of Realtors - 6 to 7%

In late 2023, we saw a glimpse of these forecasted lower interest rates with a rate of 6.61%, down from the peak of 7.79% in October. It is important to note that these rates are significantly higher than the favorable rates we enjoyed in 2020, below 3%. The Federal Reserve began raising rates in 2022-2023 to combat inflation. (As of February 13th, 2024, a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.490%)

Talk to our partnered mortgage officer at City Credit Union in Independence MO for the most up to date rates.

Will Buyers Ever See 3% Mortgage Rates Again?

In 2020, home buyers and those interested in refinancing seized a golden opportunity as the Federal Reserve implemented historically low-interest rates to stimulate the pandemic-hit economy. However, as the economy began to recover, the Federal Reserve decided to hike interest rates to counter inflation. Consequently, lenders also increased home financing costs, resulting in declining home sales and limited refinancing prospects. Even though the mortgage rate forecast for 2024 suggests lower rates, it is unlikely that buyers will experience the historically low 3% mortgage rates in the near future. Despite this, experts remain optimistic that mortgage rates will become more favorable in the coming year. That is good news for people looking to finance a home in the near future.

When Should Mortgage Rates Drop?

Based on current projections, it appears that 2024 will bring some positive changes in mortgage rates. Experts predict a steady decrease in interest rates starting in the middle of the year. However, it's important to note that these predictions are not set in stone. Just like predicting the weather, forecasting mortgage rates involves evaluating trends and likely outcomes.

One key factor that influences mortgage rates is inflation. Higher inflation rates usually result in higher mortgage rates, while drops in inflation can trigger lower rates to stimulate the economy. Lenders often follow the lead of the Federal Reserve when it comes to adjusting rates. So, while we can't provide an exact date for when mortgage rates will go down, we can offer insights into the trends and factors that may influence their movement.

Will HELOC Interest Rates Go Down in 2024?

While we cannot predict the future with certainty, it is worth noting that HELOC interest rates are often linked to the prime rate, which is influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Currently, the Federal Reserve has indicated its intention to keep interest rates low to support economic recovery. That said, it’s important to consider the various factors that can influence interest rates and the fluctuations that can occur. In order to determine the potential trend for HELOC interest rates in 2024, it might be helpful to monitor the broader mortgage rate forecast and keep an eye on any updates from the Federal Reserve. Homeowners can make better financial decisions if they stay informed about mortgage rates and seek expert advice.

I Just Bought a Home in 2023. Should I Refinance?

If you purchased a home in 2023, you might wonder if it's a good idea to refinance in 2024. The answer is yes, but only if you can secure a lower interest rate that saves you money. It’s always wise to seek professional advice when considering refinancing options. Talking to experts will help you understand how refinancing can save on housing costs. Using a mortgage calculator is highly recommended to determine the actual cost of refinancing. Several factors, such as the price of your home, down payment, loan term, property taxes, homeowners insurance, and the interest rate, will all influence your monthly mortgage payment. Refinancing can be highly beneficial as it allows you to save money, build equity faster, and reduce your monthly mortgage payment.

For homeowners who purchased a property in 2023, it's worth considering refinancing in 2024, when mortgage rates will go down by at least 2% compared to your current rate. If you're looking for the best refinancing options in the Jackson County area, don't hesitate to visit our experts at City Credit Union. They'll provide you with professional guidance and help you make the best decisions for your financial situation.

Discuss Home Prices With Your Mortgage Loan Officer

We invite you to join us at City Credit Union for an open discussion about the mortgage rate forecast for 2024 and how to leverage home prices and mortgage rates to meet your housing and financial goals. In partnership with United Consumers Credit Union, a loan officer will provide valuable insights and guidance on various aspects, including mortgage rates and trends, so you can make an informed decision. Let City Credit Union's loan experts help you make informed decisions aligned with your financial goals.